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US Corporate Earnings Collapse

Posted by The Fundamental Analyst on Feb 17th, 2009

Back in November I warned of an Imminent Earnings Meltdown. At that time I argued that despite optimistic forecasts of US corporate earnings showing growth in 4Q08, I was convinced that they would actually decline given that the economic deterioration had spread to the broader economy.
As has been the case on previous occasions, my [...]

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Analysts Still Playing Catch-up on Earnings

Posted by The Fundamental Analyst on Aug 18th, 2008

A theme that I have been harping on for the best part of a year is earnings. Earnings cycles never last much more than about 5 years. However, analysts being the optimistic bunch they are, often project 10 or more years of steady earnings growth into their models.
Thus they never anticipate turning points in the [...]

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Analyst Earnings Forecasts Still Too Optimistic

Posted by The Fundamental Analyst on Jun 30th, 2008

It is the prediliction of analysts to be overly optimistic in their earnings projections. This becomes even more apparent at turning points in the earnings cycle.
As shown below, even after S&P500 operating earnings fell -9.5% in 3Q07, analysts were predicting positive earnings growth of 2.9% for 4Q07 as late as the middle of November. As [...]

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